Focus on manufacturing sector PMIs and inflation
Friday, 1st October
Retail sales in Germany (MoM) (August)
Spanish manufacturing PMI (Sep)
Italian manufacturing PMI (Sep)
French manufacturing PMI (Sept.) Final
German Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Final
Euro zone manufacturing PMI (Sep) Final
Euro area CPI (year-on-year) (Sept) Prelim.
It was a mixed day for the European majors on Thursday.
EuroStoxx600 rose 0.18%, while the CAC40 and DAX30 ended the day down 0.62% and 0.68% respectively.
A busy economic calendar did not bring support, with statistics from China, the euro area and the United States providing mixed signals.
In September, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 to 50.0, while the NBS Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.6. Activity in the service sector performed better, with the NBS non-manufacturing PMI index dropping from 47.5 to 53.2.
Weaker than expected jobless claims figures in the US offset an upward revision to 2sd GDP figures for the quarter later today.
The start of the day was particularly busy on the economic calendar for the euro zone.
Key statistics included French consumer spending, French and Italian inflation, and German unemployment figures.
This was a mixed set of numbers, however testing the support for majors at the start of the session.
In August, consumer spending rose 1.0%, partially reversing a 2.2% drop from July. Economists were forecasting an increase of 0.1%.
Inflation figures were negative for the euro, however. On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.2%, with the harmonized consumer price index also falling 0.2%. Economists had forecast declines of 0.1% respectively.
German unemployment figures were also disappointing. In September, the German unemployment rate remained at 5.5% against an expected drop to 5.4%. German unemployment fell by 30,000 in the month from an expected drop of 33,000. In August, unemployment had fallen by 53k.
Although negative for the euro, lower-than-expected inflation figures in Germany have sparked interest. In September, consumer prices held steady after rising 0.9% in August. Economists were forecasting an increase of 0.1%.
The euro zone
For the eurozone, unemployment figures were a bit better, with unemployment falling from 7.6% to 7.5%. Economists were forecasting a drop to 7.5%.
While the focus was on inflation, Ialy’s inflation figures had a moderate impact on the euro. In September, consumer prices fell 0.1% against an expected drop of 0.3%. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August.
The United States
Finalized 2sd The quarter’s GDP and the first claims for unemployment benefits were the focus of attention later in the European session.
For the 2sd quarter, the US economy grew 6.7%, down from 6.6% previously.
In the week ending 24e September, however, the first jobless claims were disappointing. Claims went from 351,000 to 362,000, which was worse than the expected 335,000.
At the end of the day, Chicago’s PMI figures for September also sparked interest.
The Chicago PMI index fell from 66.8 to 64.7 from an expected decline to 65.0.
For the DAX: It was a bearish day for the auto sector on Thursday. Bmw fell 1.35% to lead the way, with Volkswagen down 0.96%. Continental and Daimler however, experienced modest losses of 0.19% and 0.14% respectively.
It was also a mixed day for the banks. German Bank increased by 0.77%, while Commercial bank decreased by 0.24%.
From CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Gen Soc increased by 0.33% and 0.30% respectively. Agricultural credit saw the red, on the other hand, fall by 0.83%.
It was a bearish day for the French automotive sector. Stellantis SA and Renault both ended the day down 1.58% respectively.
Air France-KLM fell 7.52%, while Airbus SE decreased by 1.88%.
On the VIX index
It was a comeback for the VIX on Thursday, scoring a 3rd increase of the week.
Partially reversing a 2.97% decline from Wednesday, the VIX rose 2.57% to end the day at 23.14.
The NASDAQ fell 0.44%, with the Dow Jones and the S & P500 ending the day down 1.59% and 1.19% respectively.
The day to come
It is another particularly busy day in the economic calendar for the euro area.
German retail sales and manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain are expected. Finalized manufacturing PMIs are also expected for France, Germany and the euro zone.
Barring sharp revisions to preliminary figures, German retail sales and PMIs for Italy and the Eurozone should play a key role.
In the United States, the ISM manufacturing PMI figures for September and the personal spending and inflation figures for August will also influence.
While the PMI will generate interest, inflation and personal spending numbers are likely to have a bigger impact.
Before the European open, 3rd quarter, figures from Japan’s Tankan survey will set the tone.
From Capitol Hill, debt ceiling updates will also be the focus of the day.
In futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down 55 points.
For an overview of all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This article originally appeared on FX Empire