Why Nevada Will Tell the Story of the 2022 Election
Indeed, none of the Democrats holding federal office in the silver state should feel secure about their re-election prospects this year. That includes the three House Democrats and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. Incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak also faces a tough race.
It might not be what you’d expect in a state that’s turned Democratic in the last four presidential elections, but there are some troubling trends for the party beneath the surface.
But two combined factors in national politics make Nevada vulnerable to a Republican takeover.
The second is perhaps more surprising: white voters without a college degree. This bloc has moved strongly in the Republican direction in recent election cycles. In some states, the move was offset by white voters with college degrees migrating to the Democratic Party.
Nevada was the only swing state to make the top three in the percentage of Hispanic voters and white voters without a college degree.
At the same time, Las Vegas’ 1st District went from having Biden winning by more than 20 points to one who would have backed him by less than 10 points.
Emmanuel Macron is favored in France, but it is not certain
This year, the polls suggest a much closer affair, thanks in large part to an issue familiar to the US president: inflation. In polls taken since the first round, Macron has gained an average of 7 points over Le Pen. But a victory for Le Pen cannot be ruled out.
Beyond the fact that there was a larger polling error (10 points) in 2017 than the current average margin, take a look at every presidential election in France since 1969. There have been nine in total , a relatively small sample.
The true margin of error, at a 95% confidence interval, is about +/- 13 points, if you were to take that small sample size into account and look at the difference between the final average of the polls and the result of these nine elections. In other words, it’s almost double Macron’s current advantage in the polls.
The fact that the race is so close may come as a surprise to some given the past elections in France. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie, who shared a fairly similar policy with his daughter, lost the 2002 second round by more than 60 points to Jacques Chirac. Marine Le Pen herself halved that deficit in 2017, even though she was nowhere near winning.